12: Expiration of New START Treaty and Nuclear Arms Control Vacuum

• End of an Era: The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) officially expired on February 5, 2026, without a successor agreement, marking the first time in over 50 years that the world’s two largest nuclear powers have no binding limits on their arsenals. • Caps and Constraints: The treaty had limited the U.S. and Russia to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems (ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers). These caps have now legally ceased to exist. • Verification Breakdown: The expiration terminates the robust verification regime, including shortnotice on-site inspections and data exchanges, significantly increasing the risk of strategic miscalculation and mistrust. • Trilateral Deadlock: The U.S. push for a trilateral framework including China was rejected by Beijing, which maintains that its arsenal (approx. 600 warheads) is significantly smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia (approx. 5,000+ each). • Voluntary Restraint: While Russia expressed a conditional willingness to abide by the treaty\'s central limits for one more year, the lack of a formal pact creates a strategic vacuum that could trigger a renewed global nuclear arms race. • Global Security Implications: UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the lapse as a \'grave moment,\' warning that the collapse of arms control frameworks undermines the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and regional security in Europe and Asia. Key Definitions & Provisions • Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Long-range weapons (intercontinental range) designed to target an enemy\'s heartland, as opposed to tactical weapons meant for battlefield use. • New START (2010): Signed by Presidents Obama and Medvedev; it was the last surviving pillar of bilateral arms control after the collapse of the ABM, INF, and Open Skies treaties. • Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - Article VI: Obligates nuclear-weapon states to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to the cessation of the nuclear arms race and to nuclear disarmament. Conclusion The expiration of New START signifies a transition from a \'rules-based\' nuclear order to one of \'unconstrained competition.\' Without verifiable limits, the global community faces heightened instability, necessitating urgent new-age diplomacy to prevent a 21st-century arms race. UPSC Relevance • GS Paper 2: Important International institutions, agencies and fora- their structure, mandate; Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests. • Prelims: New START vs START I; Countries with nuclear weapons; Major arms control treaties (INF, PTBT, CTBT).