9. Crisis in the Indian Aviation Sector: Systemic Fragilities and Regulatory Rebirth

The past year has been a period of profound turbulence for India’s civil aviation industry, transitioning from a phase of hyper-growth to a high-stakes \'reckoning.\' Despite being the world’s third-largest domestic market, the sector is currently grappling with a systemic breakdown evidenced by the December 2025 IndiGo scheduling crisis and the tragic June 2025 Ahmedabad crash. This \'duopoly-led\' structure, where IndiGo and the Air India group control nearly 90% of the market, has revealed its limitations in absorbing shocks. As new regional players like Shankh Air and Al Hind Air prepare to enter in 2026, the focus has shifted from mere fleet expansion to structural resilience, pilot welfare, and rigorous safety enforcement.Summary of Key Developments • The December \'Stress Test\' Failure: IndiGo, India’s largest carrier, cancelled over 4,500 flights in early December 2025 due to a \'pilot bottleneck\' triggered by Phase-2 of the new Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) norms. This crisis underscored the dangers of thin crew buffers in a highutilization model. • FDTL Norms and Pilot Fatigue: The DGCA implemented stricter FDTL rules in 2025 to align with global standards (FAA/EASA). Key changes included extending night windows (00:00–06:00), capping night landings to two per roster, and increasing weekly rest to 48 hours, which reduced pilot utility by roughly 15–20%. • Market Concentration (Duopoly): IndiGo (approx. 65%) and the Air India group (approx. 28%) form a duopoly that creates systemic risk. Operational failures at a dominant carrier no longer merely shift traffic to rivals but lead to a total contraction of national capacity, especially on the 60% of routes where IndiGo is the sole operator. • Acute Manpower Deficit: India faces a critical pilot shortage, requiring an estimated 7,000 pilots by 2026. However, the current pilot-to-aircraft ratio (approx. 14) remains far below the global safety benchmark of 18–20, hampered by high training costs and a lack of local simulator capacity. • Regional Decentralization: To counter the duopoly, the Ministry of Civil Aviation issued No Objection Certificates (NOCs) to three new regional players—Shankh Air (UP-based), Al Hind Air (Keralabased), and FlyExpress (Telangana-based). These entrants aim to leverage the UDAN scheme to improve Tier-2 and Tier-3 connectivity. • Safety and Regulatory Scrutiny: Following the June 2025 crash and 19 separate safety violation notices, the DGCA has adopted a \'proactive accountability\' stance, imposing heavy fines (₹22.2 crore) and mandating bank guarantees for compliance. Key Definitions • Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL): Mandatory safety regulations that prescribe the maximum flight and duty hours and minimum rest periods for pilots to prevent fatigue-related accidents. • Pilot-to-Aircraft Ratio: A metric used to assess crew depth; a ratio of 18–20 sets of pilots per aircraft is generally required to maintain a buffer for leaves, training, and fatigue management. • Safe Harbour (Aviation): The principle where airlines are protected from certain liabilities provided they adhere to \'due diligence\' in safety and duty norms; currently under threat due to systemic negligence. • Type-Rating: A regulatory certification for pilots to fly a specific type of aircraft (e.g., A320 or B787), which acts as a bottleneck in rapid fleet deployment. Constitutional & Legal Provisions • Union List (Schedule VII): Entry 29 gives the Parliament exclusive power to legislate on \'Airways; aircraft and air navigation; provision of aerodromes.\' • Bharatiya Vayuyan Adhiniyam, 2024: The newly enacted primary legislation (replacing the Aircraft Act, 1934) that modernizes aircraft registration, safety oversight, and empowers the DGCA with higher penalizing authority. • Article 21 (Right to Safety): The Supreme Court has periodically interpreted the Right to Life to include the right to safe public transport, forming the basis for judicial intervention in aviation safety standards. • Aircraft Rules, 1937: Secondary legislation that provides the technical framework for pilot licensing, airworthiness, and FDTL norms, recently amended to include Phase-2 fatigue management. ConclusionThe current crisis is a transition from an \'efficiency-first\' model to a \'safety-first\' framework. While the entry of new regional players offers a ray of hope for de-concentration, their survival depends on addressing the high volatility of Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices and the pilot supply-chain crunch. For India to reach its target of 715 million passengers by 2030, the regulator must shift from ad hoc crisis management to a permanent Fatigue Risk Management System (FRMS) that balances commercial growth with the physiological limits of flight crews. UPSC Relevance • GS Paper II: Statutory, regulatory and various quasi-judicial bodies (DGCA); Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors. • GS Paper III: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways etc.; Mobilization of resources; Science and Technology (Aviation safety). • Mains: Analyzing the risks of market concentration (duopoly) in essential services; Challenges of regional connectivity (UDAN scheme)