Why Kashmir and Ladakh are without snow this winter

Why Kashmir and Ladakh are without snow this winter

Context: One of Kashmir’s main winter tourism attractions, Gulmarg, has been bereft of snow this season, leading to a plunge in the flow of tourists and severely hitting the business of ski resorts.

Significance of Snow in Kashmir and Ladakh:
• Snowfall in Kashmir is much more than just a tourist attraction.
• It is crucial for the local climate, winter crops and horticulture, availability of waters in streams and rivers, and for the local economy.

Which factors are responsible for decreasing trend in snowfall?
• The overall decreasing trend of snowfall has been attributed to a decline in western disturbance events and gradual rise in temperatures, which invloves the role of climate change.
• The prevailing El Nino event in the eastern Pacific Ocean might be the additional factor to account for this year, scientists say.

What is the role of Western Disturbances?
• Winter precipitation in the Himalayan region is caused mainly by Western Disturbances. These are large eastward-moving rain-bearing wind systems that originate beyond Afghanistan and Iran, picking up moisture from as far as the Mediterranean Sea and even the Atlantic Ocean.
•  Western Disturbances are the primary source of rainfall over north and northwest India during the postmonsoon and winter months.
• During winters, about four to six western disturbance events happen every month on an average. This season there was one feeble western disturbance event in December that did not bring any rains, and another similar one in January.
• The mean frequency of strong and extreme Western Disturbances, ones that definitely result in rainfall or snowfall, had declined as much as 43 per cent in recent years.
• The other, connected, thing is that temperatures in these regions are rising. The rate of increase of temperature is seen to be higher in the upper elevation areas than in the plains.

What is the impact of El Nino?
• While El Nino has worsened global atmospheric circulations and might be contributing to deficit precipitation in the region however, the state has witnessed several years where winter has remained dry and snowfall has been less but those weren’t El Nino years.
• Thus, declining snowfall in Kashmir could be a direct fall-out of climate change.

What are the repurcussions?

Long Term
• Long-term implications include the generation of less hydroelectricity, an increase in the rate of glacier melting, and an adverse impact on the drinking water supply, since scanty snowfall means very little recharge of groundwater.

Short Term
• In the short term, a dry spell can result in an increase in forest fires, agricultural drought, and a drop in crop production.
• Yields of apples or saffron, important ingredients of local economy, will be badly affected in the absence of snowfall.