India-Maldives Relations – What’s at stake?

India-Maldives Relations – What’s at stake?

News: Maldives has been in the news for all the wrong reasons for the past some time now.

Background:
• The new government led by President Mohamed Muizzu asked India to withdraw military personnel, chose China for one of his first overseas visits, and then moved to scrap a key pact involving a water survey.
• The latest trigger has been undiplomatic words used by ministers in Muizzu’s cabinet against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in particular and Indians in general.

What’s at stake?
• Diplomatic and political relationship between the two countries.
• Post the democratic transition in 2008, India has built deep relationships with all relevant stakeholders — players in politics, military, business, and civil society — despite the change in governments.

Why does India need Maldives?

Location and maritime security
• Maldives’ proximity to the west coast of India (barely 70 nautical miles from Minicoy and 300 nautical miles from India’s West coast), and its location at the hub of commercial sea-lanes running through the Indian Ocean.
• The security scenario in India’s periphery in the Indian Ocean is very much linked to the maritime strength of Maldives.

Defence
• Estimates suggest that almost 70 per cent of Maldives’ defence training is done by India.
• India has trained over 1,500 Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) personnel in the past 10 years.

The China Factor
• Male’s growing ties with China since the latter opened its embassy in 2011 has been a matter of concern for New Delhi.
• From strategic perspective, India needs Maldives on its side for security perspective.

Why does Maldives need India?
• India supplies Maldives with its everyday essentials: rice, spices, fruits, vegetables, poultry.
• It supplies medicines — not just everyday medicines, but all critical care and life-saving drugs.
• India has been the education provider for Maldivians. Every year, Maldivian students flock to Indian higher educational institutions. The government gives out scholarships for Maldivian students to study in India.
• Economic dependence - Of the Rs 50 crore total trade between India and Maldives in 2022, Rs 49 crore was India’s exports to Maldives. India emerged as Maldives’ second largest trade partner in 2022.
• Moreover, India has been first to help Maldives be it during disasters, Covid-19 pandemic or even airlifting water when the country faced water crisis during 2014.
• Security provider - When there was a coup attempt in 1988 against then President Abdul Gayoom, India sent in troops to fight the combatants. (Operation Cactus)

Conclusion
• In this overall context, it is in the interest of both New Delhi and Male to dial down the current tensions, by assuaging each other’s concerns and cooperating on what matters most for both sides.