WMO Warning on Intensifying El Nino and Global Climate Disruptions

Key Highlights & Summary 

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned of an impending \'very strong\' El Nino event with near 100% likelihood to persist through February 2027, altering global temperature and rainfall patterns.

 • Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific (Nino 3.4 region) crossed 1.5°C above normal during May-July and exceeded 2.0°C in July, driving extreme heatwaves, droughts, and floods worldwide. 

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that late August monsoon rainfall faced El Nino pressures, though overall seasonal rainfall largely escaped major deficit as threefourths of the monsoon concluded.

 • A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to develop during SeptemberNovember with a seasonal mean value of 0.9°C, offering a potential natural cushion to counter El Nino impacts over South Asia. 

• Unprecedented subsurface ocean warming (over 8°C above average in places) signals sustained atmospheric feedback, prompting WMO\'s largest global mobilization of national hydrological and meteorological services in its 50-year history.

 • The ongoing climate anomaly threatens agriculture, water security, and energy infrastructure, underscoring the urgent need for early-warning systems and local disaster preparedness.

 Essential Definitions  

• El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A periodic oceanatmosphere climate phenomenon involving warm ocean waters accumulating in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, disrupting global atmospheric circulation. 

• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): The temperature difference between the western tropical Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea) and the eastern tropical Indian Ocean south of Indonesia, where a positive phase indicates warmer western waters.

 • Nino 3.4 Index: A standard meteorological metric tracking sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean region bounded by 5°N-5°S latitude and 120°W-170°W longitude. 

Legal and Constitutional Framework

 • Disaster Management Act, 2005: Provides the statutory framework through the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to formulate action plans for climate-induced hazards like severe droughts, heatwaves, and flooding. 

• National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC): Overarching policy matrix containing specific missions, such as the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) and Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change, to build resilient infrastructure.

 • Article 48A of the Indian Constitution: Under Directive Principles of State Policy, obligates the State to protect and improve the natural environment and safeguard national ecological security. Conclusion The forecast of a prolonged, high-intensity El Nino highlights the vulnerability of global food systems and weather regimes to ocean warming. While a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole may temporarily cushion South Asian monsoon dynamics, long-term resilience requires institutionalizing climate-smart agriculture, adaptive water management, and proactive disaster risk reduction. 

UPSC Relevance 

• GS Paper III: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment; Disaster and disaster management; Major crops and cropping patterns. 

• Prelims Focus: Mechanics of ENSO and IOD, WMO mandates, IMD forecasting models, DPSP Article 48A, and disaster management institutional structures.