Global Temperatures to Surge

Global Temperatures to Surge
 

News: According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report, global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years.
 

Key Findings:
 There is 66% chance that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027, will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.
 Emissions from human activities and a likely El Niño weather pattern later this year will lead to such record level temperatures.
 Scientists use average temperature data from the period between 1850-1900 as a measure of how hot the world was before our modern reliance on coal, oil and gas.
 For years the scientists believed that if the world warmed by around 2 °C that would be the threshold of dangerous impacts. However, in 2018 they revised the estimate, showing that going past 1.5 °C would be calamitous for the world.
 Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global expected anomaly when considering the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.
 Predicted rain patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.
 

How will El-Nino change things?
 For the last three years, the world has been experiencing a La Niña event which has dampened climate warming to some extent.
 But the extra heat that El Niño will bring to the surface of the Pacific this year will likely push the global temperature to a new high next year. Owing to this there are 98% chances that record temperature set in 2016 (which was an El-Nino year) will be breached.
 Usually, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops, in this case, that means 2024.